Electoral Reform: Fixing The Democratic
Deficit! What Is The Problem? Preferential Ballot?!
Proportional System?? Both?!
First, a table of contents (with links),
followed by the full text.
What
Is The Problem? What's Wrong With Our Election System?
Two Approaches To Defining The Problem Of The Democratic Deficit
1. Who Wins & Who Loses?
2. Refining The Focus On Canada's
Electoral System
The Democratic Deficit!
A Question Of Process. How To Find The Problem?
What Is The Problem?
Sharpening The Question. The Big Picture
Sharpening The Question. Considering The Details
Defining Three Voting Systems
"First Past The Gate
Post."
"Preferential
Ballot."
"Proportional
Systems."
Honing The Question Further
"Scoring" Election Outcomes.
Definitions
"Scoring" Election Outcomes.
Examples
"Scoring" The 2006 Election
Outcome Table
"Scoring"
The Electoral Coverage By The Pundits
"Scoring" The Electoral Outcome
Of Several Constituencies
Comparing A Preferential System With A Proportional One
Concluding Summary
Endnotes
Electoral Reform: Fixing The Democratic
Deficit! What Is The Problem? Preferential Ballot?!
Proportional System?? Both?!
February 10, 2006 A.D.
What
Is The Problem? What's Wrong With Our Election System?
Most Canadian citizens know instinctively that,
Canada's elections
contribute to making unfair winners and losers. Through a step
by step
approach, designed so you can skip sections already familiar to you,
anyone,
who completes reading this entire paper, will have the tools to
pin-point
and see conclusively, with their eyes, what is wrong with our
"first past
the post" voting system and how to fix it. This paper
will also heighten awareness of how complex electoral fixes, may with near
certainty
contain new
undemocratic Trojan Horses introduced by those who currently obtain
unfair
advantage.
Changing from a "first past the post" to a preferential
ballot system is a
relatively small step which accomplishes a large democratic step
forward,
without risking any undemocratic mis-steps. So, how come
virtually all
reform measures being advanced so far do not advance the
preferential ballot
but instead, advance a very complex and complicated proportional
ballot
system?
Regardless of which organization's studies you may have reviewed
earlier,
unless, in the march towards true electoral reform, you have made
your very
own analysis of Canada's election system, I will almost guarantee
you that
by the end of this document,
- You will have a clearer, stronger grasp of what is the problem
with our
current electoral system.
- You will understand that there is much politics behind the
problem of
the democratic deficit. Among those that benefit from the
democratic
deficit, the problem is grossly understated. And among too
many who advance
reform, including making specific recommendations, their analyses
has only
seen the tip of the iceberg, neither properly understanding nor
clearly
defining the fundamental cause of the democratic deficit.
- This analysis will lead you to understand how and why, along
the
genuine path towards correcting the democratic deficit, the
"first past the
post" system is the fundamental problem and that the
preferential ballot, in
contrast to proportional representation, is the best next step.
- You will realize that the size and complexity of the step to
change from
"first past the post" to a preferential system, compared
to proportional
system, is but a tiny next step that could easily be
implemented in time
for the next election, producing immediate and positive results
without risk
of an undemocratic mis-step!
- You will see that, in switching to a preferential system, most
voters and
election observers would be able to follow and understand the
accuracy of
all steps, from completing the preferential ballot (ranking
candidates 1, 2,
3...), to the count of the ballots, to who is elected! From
beginning to
end, ten different election observ[e]ors would all come to the
identical
conclusion as to who is elected! No ifs, ands or buts in the
preferential
ballot system!
- You will see that, in a proportional system, from beginning to
end, the
process is much more complex than a preferential system. How
to use and
properly fill out a proportional ballot usually involves more
complexity and
sophistication. Regarding the count, very few voters and
election observers
would actually be able to follow and understand the results
unassisted. Ten
different people designing, implementing the counting process and
then
counting the ballots would all very easily come up with a different
list of
who was elected! Such complexity also increases the risks that
undemocratic
Trojan Horses would be snuck into the adopted proportional system.
- You will see that the preferential ballot eliminates the
undemocratic
error resulting from the "first past the post" system
while the proportional
system, as advanced by electoral reform organizations like Equal
Voice and FairVote, only cover up and mask the undemocratic component within
the
"first past the post" counting system. Their
proposals include maintaining
the "first past the post" system. Whatever
advantages a proportional system
does provide, those fixes could always be added later on top of a
preferential system.
This paper's argument is designed so readers familiar with the
basics of
electoral reform might start with "honing the question"
and circle back as
necessary, while advanced readers or someone who would like to see
the end
target from page one, might first jump to the Concluding
Summary.
After reviewing this document, you will be able to establish your
own
democratic standard of comparison, whereby you can evaluate the
strengths,
weaknesses, even the undemocratic holes, which are not being
addressed in
any of the political parties' solutions, including by Equal Voice's
or
FairVote's electoral reform measures advanced so far.
Back to top
Two Approaches To Defining The Problem Of The Democratic Deficit
1. Who Wins & Who Loses?
In peace time, the era during which Canadians experienced the most
significant reversal and social upheaval in Canada, began in earnest
with
the Mulroney period.
When Mulroney "took power", corporate income taxes were a
large source of
the federal government's income. In fact, the total from corporate income
taxes dwarfed personal income taxes by a large measure. Thanks
to the
corporate tax holidays birthed by Mulroney, today's federal
corporate income
tax revenues are much less than personal income taxes! In
fact, the share
of income taxes coming from the corporate sector is now less than
the
premiums the federal government collects regarding what was formerly
called
unemployment insurance. When Mulroney "took power",
unemployment insurance
premiums, compared to either corporate or personal tax was
relatively small!
To help put the size of this pro-corporate citizen-unfriendly
transfer of
wealth and taxes into perspective, please ask yourself, have
corporate
incomes decreased since Mulroney's time until now? Of course
not! That's
almost a stupid question! Over this period of time and
adjusting for
inflation, Canadian personal incomes have generally plateaued, even dropped
significantly, while the growth in total corporate assets and revenues are
booming!
In comparison, how, during this time, have corporate assets and revenues
increased? The corporate sector has captured i) an increased share ii) of a
growing economy; iii) through what is called privatization, huge portions
of public resources and institutions have been "transferred" from public
control into the hands of private corporate control; iv) and in
every year
from Mulroney onwards, significant numbers of small business,
including
farmers, have incorporated, thereby shifting their tax load from
personal to
corporate taxes.
Each one of these changes represents a transfer of resources and wealth from
the public personal side to the private corporate side. In aggregate,
despite the phenomenal growth in corporate assets and revenues, the
total
corporate income tax share in comparison to personal income taxes,
keeps
declining!. In effect, the Canadian public economic pie is
shrinking while
personal income tax must pay for an ever increasing share of all our
social
services from roads to education to healthcare!
This restructuring of the economy was and continues to be accomplished by a
two step cyclical repetitive approach. First, through pressures from
free-trade, implemented by Mulroney, our tax system had to be
restructured
and provided significant corporate-friendly citizen-unfriendly
advantage.
The combination of Mulroney's free-trade and tax restructuring
produced the
largest financial DEFICIT AND DEBT in the history of Canada!
Enter Paul Martin who through single-mindedness not only tackled the
deficit, but with further pro-corporate citizen-unfriendly agenda
placed a
disproportionate belt-tightening burden on the personal tax paying public
and thereby created many further infrastructure and social deficits
(roads
and healthcare crumbled). Once the "financial
deficit" was eliminated on
the backs of the personal tax paying public, the goal posts were
changed
into reducing the debt and continuing his disproportionate
pro-corporate
citizen-unfriendly agenda by exercising "restraint" with
the personal tax
paying public.
Each of these "fixes" was no accident. The rejigging
of who pays and who
benefits through our economic and taxation system was intentional!
Now with
further "fixes" of continentalism, deep integration, harmonization and
bi-lateral anti-terrorist measures more corporate-friendly
citizen-unfriendly economic and tax measures are being advanced,
with almost
no seamless difference between Martin and now Harper.
In short, I submit that this huge and immense reversal in who pays
and who
receives the benefits from the Canadian tax dollar, which started big time
during the Mulroney era, IS A DIRECT OUTCOME OF CANADA'S DEMOCRATIC
DEFICIT.
Canada's democratic deficit constitutes not only the largest
Canadian
deficit, but the most under-reported deficit as well! This
unloading of the
corporate share in income taxes paid during times of significantly increased
corporate profits is made all the more unreal when one considers
that NO
CORPORATION VOTES IN CANADIAN ELECTIONS, ONLY CITIZENS!
So how and why would the citizens of Canada effectively elect such
corporate-friendly citizen-unfriendly forms of Canadian government?
Or does
our election system put Canadians squarely behind the eight-ball, leaving
them holding not only the tax bag but also having government that in
practise is not of, by and for the people?
2. Refining The Focus On Canada's Electoral
System
The remainder of this review will focus on Canada's electoral
system,
keeping one eye on three known voting systems, the current
"first past the
post" system, the "preferential ballot" system and
the "proportional voting"
scheme, while keeping the other eye on who wins and who loses.
Back to top
The Democratic Deficit! A Question Of Process. How To Find The
Problem?
I recall an older saying -- a problem properly defined is a problem
already
half resolved. Conversely, if we don't ask the right question,
we will not
get the right answer, without which the better solutions remain out
of
reach. Namely, the best answer is found by asking the right
question. "Ask
the right question and you will get the right answer."
Getting a "bull's eye" with the first shot, may be
beginners luck. In real
life this happens rarely, if ever. On a step by step bases and
refining the
question each time, we will continue to zero in on the Achilles Heal
of our
voting system and pinpoint with bulls-eye accuracy where and how the
democratic deficit occurs. Anything less than our full
knowledge of this
problem allows detractors the opportunity to divert, fog, confuse or
more
importantly, embrace the talk of well intentioned solutions while corrupting
the actual solutions with their hidden but very effective
citizen-unfriendly
undemocratic Trojan Horses.
Back to top
The Democratic Deficit! What Is The Problem?
By the time of the 2006 election, many many Canadian citizens knew
with a
certainty in their heart of hearts that there is a democratic
deficit. Few
candidates and certainly no party leader, would allow himself to be
caught
flat-footed without having something to say about addressing
Canada's
democratic deficit. These words crossed both Harper and Martin's
lips. So,
how is it that not a single leader has provided an analyses showing
to whom
the surplus accrues? Or clarified exactly where in the
electoral process a
democratic deficit arises? Despite the efforts at democratic
reform by
organizations such as Fair Vote, Equal Voice and the BC proportional
plebiscite proposal, within their sites I could not find such
analyses nor
information.
Since it is common knowledge that many Canadian citizens feel they
are
getting the shaft within Canada's "first past the post"
election system,
does it not follow that someone else may be getting an unfair
benefit? Who
gets the benefit? If someone gets the benefit, does that not
mean someone
has an inside undemocratic advantage?
With regard to having an unfair inside advantage, have you ever
flipped
coins and played "odd-man-out" with a partner against a
third? And whether
the first two recognize it or not, they have a distinct inside
advantage.
Even the person making the single "impartial" coin toss to
break the tie,
has an inside advantage to decide which of the two options should
carry the
day. I will come back to this point.
Back to top
The Democratic Deficit! Sharpening The Question. The Big
Picture
At first blush the following question may sound overly elementary.
With
seriousness and sincerity, are all elections democratic?
"Democracy" by definition means "people" plus
"rule". That is, "self-rule"
arrived at democratically by "the collective".
"Self-rule" may also easily
be contrasted with "other-ruled". However
"other-ruled" by definition is
undemocratic and need not be discussed further here.
After hybrids are excluded, there are also only two forms of
elections:
one-person one-vote; or, one-dollar (or one-widget) one-vote.
One-dollar
one-vote elections common within a corporate setting are therefore
by
definition, not a democratic election, for it is some
"thing" and not one
person that counts.
Back to top
The Democratic Deficit! Sharpening The Question. Considering
The Details.
Having made these refinements, we can now more precisely ask the
question
again, are all one-person one vote elections democratic?
"Majority rule" is a common watchword or measure used to
define the standard
for a democratic election. From this, the minimum standard for
majority
rule is 50% plus one. Anything less is no longer majority
rule. Thus, if
the choice is between two people, other than a tie, the elected
person will
be elected by majority rule. However, elections frequently
involve more
than two people and in most but not all Canadian elections, the
"first past
the post system" is the system that is not God-given, but the
one we have
adopted and use in such situations.
With this revised focus, are "first past the post"
elections democratic when
there are more than two to choose from?
This will depend on the actual outcome. In order to compare
one candidate
with another, I will use a candidate's percentage of the votes
obtained.
Thus in an election involving 3 people, the range in percentage vote
a
winning candidate may receive is from slightly over 1/3 (where the
votes are
split almost evenly among all three) to 100%. In elections
with 4
candidates, the possible range becomes slightly over 25% to 100%.
Thus, the
minimum "first past the post" threshold by which a
candidate may get elected
keeps getting less as more people stand for election. In cases
involving
more than two candidates, clearly if one candidate gets more than
50% of the
vote, then this is a democratic election. If the winning
candidate's
percentage of vote is less than 50% plus one, I will simply say
according to
the "majority rule" such an election is undemocratic as a
minority
representative will act for the majority! Canada's
"clarity bill" (a
federal act defining what percentage of vote is required should
Quebec
decide to secede from Canada) applies this same measure 50% plus one. Thus
in "first past the post" elections where the winning
candidate's percentage
of vote is less than 50% plus one, a democratic deficit occurs.
Back to top
The Democratic Deficit! Defining Three Voting Systems
"First past the post." Regardless of how many
candidates stand for
election, the only test in a "first past the post" system
is which candidate
receives the greatest number of votes.
"Preferential ballot." In the "preferential
ballot" system, sometimes called
a presidential voting system, instead of voting with one
"x", voters MAY
rank the candidates 1, 2, 3... The first time around, when all
the ballots
are counted regarding their #1 choice AND if no candidate receives a
majority (50% plus 1), then the candidate with the lowest vote count
gets
dropped and his/her ballots are redistributed among the remaining
still-standing candidates. This continues until one candidate
has received
majority support, meaning 50% plus 1.
Please note: The preferential ballot is neither a new method of
voting nor
unknown to Canada. Every one of our current political party
leaders was
elected by some variation of a preferential ballot! France's
president is
elected this way. So are the farmer-elected directors of the
Canadian Wheat
Board.
"Proportional systems." There are two types of
proportional voting schemes; one called "mixed", the other strictly
"proportional". Both types involve a
complex adjustment of all the votes cast for all the candidates
and/or
parties in order to arrive at a "proportional" outcome.
For example, if one
party receives 30% of the overall vote, then that party receives 30%
of the
elected representatives. This adjustment factor is applied in
both a mixed
proportional and strictly proportional system.
In a "mixed" proportional system, the first group of MPs
get elected as
representatives of a constituency. These constituency
elections may be
exactly the same as our present Canadian election, including using
the
"first past the post"! In a "mixed"
proportional system, if one person is
elected per constituency that is called a single-member
constituency. If
more than one person is elected (even as many as 4 or more) within
one
constituency, these are called a multi-member constituencies.
In a mixed system, the second group of MPs are elected through the
above
proportional adjustment factor. However, in a mixed system,
the MPs elected
by way of the proportional adjustment process are frequently taken
from a
predetermined "slate" until the number of MPs from the
first group is
"topped-up" so that a party with 30% of the vote total,
also receives 30% of
the MPs!
The counting of ballots and readjusting the outcome in a mixed
proportional
scheme and in a straight proportional scheme is always very complex
and
elaborate. I have a university degree in Mathematics and found
the BC
proposed model that went to a plebiscite vote recently exceptionally
difficult to follow.
Under a strictly "proportional" scheme, all Mps are
elected by the
proportional scheme. Not one MP represents any particular physical
constituency as there are no constituencies.
As an aside, on the question of electoral reform, I have reviewed
various
electoral reform proposals put forward by organizations such as the
NDP,
Fair Vote, the BC proportional model and the Equal Voice
organization
promoting gender parity. Within industry, I have also reviewed
the voting
schemes of organizations such as Manitoba Pool Elevator and Agricore,
while
they existed, as well as the Canadian Wheat Board, the Manitoba
Canola
Growers Association, several Credit Unions and Coops.
Except for the CWB elections and political party leadership
elections, which
use a preferential ballot system, all the others involved either a
"first
past the post" system or a proportional scheme, such as the one
as advanced
in the proposed BC proportional scheme.
Back to top
The Democratic Deficit! Honing The Question Further
What is wrong with our "first past the post" electoral
system?
Earlier, under the definition for the "first past the
post" system, it was
stated that regardless of how many candidates stand for election
within one
constituency, the only test in a "first past the post"
system is which
candidate receives the greatest number of votes. Thus, as the
number of
candidates increase, the minimum threshold percentage by which a
candidate
may be elected decreases from 50% with two candidates, to just over
33% with
3, to just over 25% with 4, etc.
Then at the conclusion of "The Democratic Deficit, Sharpening
The Question,
Considering The Details" I concluded; if the winning
candidate's percentage
of vote is less than 50% plus one, I will simply say according to
the
"majority rule" such an election is undemocratic and a
democratic deficit
occurs. Canada's "clarity bill" (a federal act
defining what percentage of
vote is required should Quebec decide to secede from Canada) applies
this
same number.
To pinpoint further how the "first past the post" is
undemocratic and does
indeed give rise to a democratic deficit, consider the following
examples.
How many times have you heard an election pundit acknowledge with
soothing
matter-of-fact conviction that the "first past the post"
system is a "winner
take all" system which encourages stable majority government in
contrast to
what they call unstable minority government? Invariably,
stable for whom is
not defined!
The Mulroney election illustrates how the democratic deficit arises
precisely
at the point when the "winner take all" system tips the
balance of power to
a minority candidate, representing a minority position, when more
than one
candidate represents the majority position. One major issue
was
"free-trade". Mulroney was for, the other two
parties against. Across the
then total number of constituencies, the larger majority anti-free
trade
vote was split 30/30 between the Liberals and the NDP, while
Mulroney got
40%. "Thanks" to the "winner take all"
bias provided by the "first past the
post" system, Mulroney gained a "majority"
government, when quite factually,
only a minority of citizens (40%) supported him! This is an
example of what
is called "splitting the vote" of the majority, so that a
minority position
can trump the will of the majority.
Mechanically, this splitting of the vote in an election is similar
to what I
pointed earlier, that two people flipping for coins and playing
"odd-man-out" with a third, have a decidedly unfair
advantage over the third
player. At the time of the Mulroney election, the
Conservatives, Liberals
and NDP made up the three players. In effect, the first two
were playing
the equivalent of odd-man-out with the NDP. Despite the Conservatives and
Liberals both representing pro-corporate citizen-unfriendly agenda, by
taking opposite positions on "free-trade", one of them was
sure to split the
vote with the NDP, in favour of the other.
As an aside, Broadbent also blundered badly by being slow to advance
the New
Democrat's anti-free-trade position, giving the Liberals the gift a
further
leg up. Two terms later, when the Liberals again took power,
they showed
their true colors by having no intentions of undoing the
pro-corporate
"free-trade" "deal". In the interim, despite posturing to the contrary,
first the Mulroney Conservatives, then the Liberals, continued with
pro-corporate citizen-unfriendly agenda, like the creeping
privatization of
healthcare and pushing step by step institutions like the Canadian
Wheat
Board towards privatization.
Since Mulroney decimated the Conservatives, the Canadian vote
splitting game
appears to have become more complex, while in reality, insider
playing for
the Liberals and now the Harper Conservatives was made more easy.
Following
Mulroney, those who in Quebec were tired of the Conservative and
Liberal
pro-corporate citizen-unfriendly look-alikes, joined forces under
the Bloc.
However, in the rest of Canada, when the Progressive Conservative
grass-roots needed to find its feet again and later would not find
home in
the Reform/Alliance bundle, it became common knowledge that a
"united right"
would do much better against the Liberals.
Replacing the "first past the post" voting system with a
preferential
ballot, should have been a no-brainer that would have eliminated
overnight
the right's self-destructive vote-splitting. If collaborative
democratic
objectives were Harper and Mckay's true objectives, would not the
adoption
of a preferential ballot have been a much more wholistic approach
than any
of the acrimony involved in Reform/Alliance's hostile takeover of
the
Progessive Conservative Party? So why, when Harper and McKay themselves got
elected as leaders through a preferential voting system, why, regarding all
of Canada, was the preferential ballot not even on their radar
screen? Why
would they forgo immediate positive changes and instead favour a
risky and
divisive unification process? Or is there a longer term
strategy and
advantage to Harper, in remaining silent and not drawing attention
to the
major undemocratic flaw in the "first past the post"
system? If no
electoral change is made, Who wins? Who loses?
Back to top
The Democratic Deficit! "Scoring" Election Outcomes.
Definitions
In "scoring" elections outcomes, "turnout" is a
commonly used criteria.
"Turnout" is the ratio of the number of people who voted,
compared to the
number of people who may vote. The ratio is normally expressed
in
percentage terms.
According to the Winnipeg Free Press, the highest ever Canadian
turnout was
79.4% in 1958. In 2006 the turnout increased to 64.9% from
60.9% in 2004.
Manitoba, for example, scored well below the Canadian average at
62.7% and
56.7% respectively. Manitoba also has the poorest constituency in
all of
Canada!
Does poverty contribute in some way to a lower turnout? If
this is true,
are lower election turnouts resulting from poverty, still
democratic?
(Remember, an election involving only those who have one dollar is
not a
democratic election.) As election turnout decreases, at some
point
elections clearly become undemocratic. I will however leave
aside for
another day, the question at which level turnout, regardless of cause, is
undemocratic and contributes to the Canadian democratic deficit.
Another term used frequently is "popular vote". If the
total election
turnout is seen as one pie, then the "popular vote", say
for the NDP, is the
NDP's share of the turnout pie and expressed in percent. That
is,
regardless of how many of the 308 NDP candidates won or lost, the
vote count
of all 308 NDP candidates is divided by the number of Canadians who
voted
and expressed as a percent.
However, since the candidates who lost have no part in Parliament,
what
value is there in expressing the "popular vote" when this
measure mixes
together those who were and were not elected to Parliament?
According to Webster, "plurality" "in an election
(means) the greater number
of votes one candidate receives over those of his closest
competitor. For
ease of use and by definition, at the constituency level, an ELECTED
candidate's popular vote is also the plurality by which a candidate
is
ELECTED. Then, a party's plurality is calculated by taking the
number of
votes all ELECTED candidates of that party received and divided by
the total
turnout (and expressed as a percent). The plurality of
parliament expresses
the number of votes all 308 ELECTED candidates received, divided by
the
total turnout and expressed as a percent.
Between "popular vote" and "plurality of vote",
election pundits' term of
choice is virtually exclusively in favour of "popular
vote". However
applying "popular vote" to all of Parliament is nothing
more meaningful than
to say that 100% of voters voted. At the party, the term does
indicate what
percentage of all voters voted for that party. At the
constituency level,
"popular vote" is simply the percentage of vote each
candidate received. On
the other hand, "plurality of vote" for all of Parliament
provides the
percentage of Canada's entire electorate that actually voted for one
of the
308 elected MPs. At the party level, "plurality of
vote" specifies the
percentage of voters that actually voted for one of the ELECTED MPs
of a
particular party. At the constituency level, "plurality
of vote" refers to
the percentage of vote the ELECTED candidate received.
Since plurality of vote for Parliament shows concretely the actual
degree of
electoral support all 308 ELECTED MP's have together (or the degree
of
support a majority or minority ELECTED government has) it is an
excellent
measure of comparison to the gold standard of democratic majority
rule (50%
plus one).
Oddly enough, given so many Canadians are concerned about the
democratic
deficit, have you ever even heard a single election pundit ever
apply the
yardstick of "plurality", that is, measure the degree of
confidence Canada's
citizens have in their Parliament? or the ruling party? By the
way,
"pundit" is Hindu for "learned man".
Who wins and who loses by the pundits almost universally focusing on
the
popular vote of each party while ignoring whether the elected
candidates,
the elected minority or majority government or even all of
Parliament, for
that matter, whether they actually have the confidence of the
majority of
Canadians?
Back to top
The Democratic Deficit! "Scoring" Election Outcomes.
Examples
In order to see the following comparisons first hand, please see
either of
the spreadsheets and/or Election's Canada data, provided at
this link.
If you then select the information only for the 308 elected MPs (the
1.1
option), that would be a good place to start to make most of the
following
comparisons.
"Scoring" The 2006 Election Outcome Table
|
Vote Count Elected
MPs |
Popular
Vote |
Party* Plurality |
MPs
Elected |
Share of
Parliament |
Con |
3,151,509 |
36.25% |
21.27% |
124 |
40.3% |
Lib |
2,208,775 |
30.22% |
14.90% |
103 |
33.4% |
Bloc |
1,246,410 |
10.48% |
8.41% |
51 |
16.6% |
NDP |
599,648 |
7.49% |
4.05% |
29 |
9.4% |
Ind |
20,158 |
0.52% |
0.14% |
1 |
0.3% |
Totals |
7,226,500 |
94.3% |
48.8%** |
308 |
100.00% |
Turnout of Canadians who voted? 64.9% or
14,815,680.
* "Plurality" is the percentage of vote a party's ELECTED
MPs received in relation to the total votes cast.
** Should all 308 MP's, including Harper, vote in
favour of any one bill, through the representational capacity of all
308 elected MPs, that bill would still only receive the support of
48.8% of the Canadian voter. If voter disenfranchisement is
included regarding all the people who did not vote or spoiled their
ballot, then the Canadian confidence in these 308 MPs sinks even
lower. Since most, if not all bills are passed by much smaller
margins than 308 MPs, this provides a graphic picture of the
Canadian Democratic Deficit.
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2006 "First Past The Post" Election Oddities -
Parliament
Viewing the whole of Parliament, in the 2006 election, 64.9% of
eligible
Canadians, or just under 15 million people, voted. Of these
only 7,226,500,
or 48.8%, voted for the 308 ELECTED candidates! Thus, even if
all 308 MP's,
including Harper, unanimously support a particular bill, even then
their
combined support is not representative of the majority of Canadians
who
voted!
This represents a clear violation of the majority rule principle and
is a
democratic deficit! Who all refuses to talk about this? Who
pays and who
reaps the benefit from this democratic deficit?
Turning to all 308 ELECTED MP's, their individual pluralities range
from a
high of 82.49% to a low of 32.69%. THAT'S RIGHT! One
ELECTED MP has the
confidence of less than one-third of the constituents who voted, yet
was declared elected! Furthermore, of the 308 MPs, only 123 MPs
have pluralities
greater than 50%. In other words, only 40% of all 308 MP's
(123/308) have
the confidence of majority-rule while the other 60% or 185 MPs, to
be exact,
were elected by a minority of their constituents and elevated by the
"first
past the post" system to elected status! Among the 185
MP's who were
elected with less than the minimum majority rule (50% plus one), 47
MP's
were elected by less than 40% of their voting constituents! Eleven of these
47 MP's who do not even have 40% support are part of Harper's minority
government!
Focusing more directly on Harper's 124 elected Conservative MPs, 69
or 56%
(69/124) were elected with less than half of their constituents
supporting
them. Thus, focusing on Harper's minority government and the
number of his
MP's who have the confidence of the majority of constituents, this
amounts
to a mere 18% (55/308) of Harper's MP's have the confidence of the
majority
of voters in their home constituencies!
These numbers clearly violate the democratic majority rule
principle. Who
wins? Who Loses in this system? What is the true meaning
of Harper's words
when he says accountability is issue #1?
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"Scoring" The Electoral Outcome Of Several Constituencies
While any of the 185 constituencies where a minority plurality
candidate was
declared elected could be chosen, I will make note of Kildonan-St.
Paul,
where I stood for election. Here, the 5 candidates' popular
votes were
43.14%, 33.46%, 20.16%, 2.71% and 0.52%. With the declared
elected
candidate having a plurality of less than 50%, this election
violates the
principles of majority rule. Similarly for the other 184 MPs
within this
category!
However, with little additional cost and at no great additional
complexity
to either the voter or those conducting the vote count, the above
undemocratic defects could be corrected with democratic majority
rule
outcomes if a preferential ballot system were used. Instead of
collapsing a
citizen's democratic voice to only one choice among 5 different
candidates,
a preferential ballot, regardless of electoral outcome, allows the voter to
focus on the very best candidate, regardless of what anyone else
thinks.
Then the second and third choice, etc.
The first round of counting the votes would stay the same as per the
above.
As no candidate received 50% plus one of the votes, the lowest
candidate
would be dropped off and those ballots redistributed.
Depending on the
splits of the 3 lowest candidates, when those ballots were being
redistributed, their combined numbers could make either one of the
still
standing front two candidates receive the support of the majority of
the
constituents!
I say "still-standing first two candidates", as it is
quite possible that as
lower candidates are dropped off and their ballots redistributed,
that lower
ranking candidates may get to stand among the first two still
standing
candidates.
The Churchill Manitoba election provides example of this. The
popular vote
of each of the six candidates in order of decreasing popular vote
(and
identifying the first three candidates), their popular votes were:
1) 40.67%
(Keeper, Liberal), 2) 28.44% (Ashton, NDP), 3) 17.15% (Independent;
former
NDP Desjarlais), 11.55%, 1.61% and 0.58%.
Here several scenarios are possible. Depending on the redistribution
pattern
of fourth and lower popular vote candidates, the first place
candidate could
receive majority rule status and the election would be over, or
neither of
the first two received majority support or even the third place
candidate
could become the second placed standing candidate and the first
place
candidate got dropped off.
Summarized with regard to the original placements, the two remaining
scenarios would be either i) #1 and #2, or ii) #2 and #3.
Then, upon the
final redistribution, either one of the original #1 or #2 OR #2 or
#3 still
standing candidates could be elected with a majority of Churchill
constituent voters!
In other words, in Churchill, depending on the will of the majority,
any one
of the first three candidates with the highest popular vote could
have
received the endorsement of the majority of the constituents.
The difference in outcome of these three very real possibilities is
more
than idle curiosity. The first past the post system created an
opportunity
for the Liberal to slip through the middle. Under all three
possible
outcomes, a preferential ballot would have resulted in a more
democratic
outcome, as in all cases, including if the Liberal was elected, the
elected
MP would have the confidence of the majority and 100% of the voters
would
have either voted for the elected person or the next nearest contender.
Even when the preferential ballot does not change the final outcome
compared
to "first past the post", the preferential ballot adds a
qualitative
democratic difference that is palpable by 100% of the constituents
and is
not to be minimized.
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Comparing A Preferential System With A Proportional One
Leaving aside for a moment further qualitative differences between
the two
voting systems, the step required to move from a "first past
the post"
system to a "preferential system" is a relatively small
step. Most voters
will know how to rank their preferences IF THEY SO CHOSE.
People who
scrutinise the ballot count can also follow the entire process with
their
own eyes, one ballot at time, one redistribution at a time.
Manual counts
will take somewhat longer, but there is essentially no added
complexity.
In mixed proportional systems, as advocated by some political
parties, Equal
Voice and FairVote, not one of them endorses the preferential
ballot!
FairVote actually dismisses the preferential ballot, claiming on the
bases
of the reviews they made, the preferential ballot would not change
many
final outcomes and is therefore not helpful.
All the proposed mixed proportional systems I reviewed (including
Equal
Voice and FairVote) would not even begin to address the democratic
deficits
regarding either the Churchill or Kildonan St. Paul example, nor any
one of
the 185 MP's whose pluralities were less than a democratic majority!
Every single proportional system I reviewed, including the BC model,
which
would have involved multi-member constituencies, the implementation
step
from the present to those schemes is enormous, compared to the step
to
implement the preferential ballot.
The proportional ballot count involves significant complexity that
simply
can not reasonably be followed manually! No scrutineer will be
able to
follow the results with their own eyes. Regarding any and all
proportional
adjustments, this is where the devil is in the details, begins in
earnest.
If there is a slate used to select the proportional
"fixes", who and how is
such a list fashioned. Central parties like a central list
making it
impossible not to elect some candidates... And why should party parity be
the only corrective. Equal voice with justification advances
gender parity,
however their own numbers show that the proportional adjustment
could never
accomplish parity even if all the proportional candidates were
women.
The BC model and FairVote's fully proportional proposal involve
multi-member
constituencies. Among these, despite very complicated counting
schemes,
none of the models I reviewed even addressed the notion as to how to
prevent
sophisticated vote-splitting schemes. If I can find ways to
create
vote-splits in multi-member constituencies, I am confident those
that
currently benefit from "first past the post" vote splits
could also find
theme to advantage. What I find problematic regarding multi-member
proportional schemes, not one of the ones I reviewed could I find references
as to how that reality was guarded against.
Nor should anything in this document be construed as an argument
against
eventually implementing proportional fixes. First of all, a
mixed
proportional system could easily be layered onto a preferential
system.
The advantage of layering a proportional system on top of a
preferential
system would be that the underlying undemocratic deficits of the
above 185
MP's would first be addressed and the subsequent proportional
adjustment
could include more criteria than simply party parity, but possibly
factors
like gender, ethnic and regional diversity, etc.
Now, focusing further on the qualitative differences, the
preferential
system fixes the lack of majority representation in mixed
proportional
schemes advanced so far and that any fixes the proportional system
can
actually deliver, a proportional system can always be added to the
preferential system!
Furthermore, by adopting this two step approach, first preferential
then
proportional, we get some very real and significant improvements.
The
preferential ballot could easily be implemented in time for the next
election without any risk of implementing undemocratic side-effects
hidden
in the details of a proportional fix. By implementing first
the
preferential ballot, then a proportional ballot, we get some very
significant
democratic improvement immediately while also giving ourselves more
breathing room to come up with true and honest proportional system
without
feeling we have to rush it because of the many defects in the
present
system! No use taking a big, highly complex step quickly by
implementing a
proportional system and inadvertently through the devil being in the
detail,
falling from the pot into the fire. A two step approach, first
and
immediate implementation of the preferential ballot followed with further
study regarding proportional fixes, will, almost with certainty
provide more
satisfying and comprehensive democratic improvements than adopting a
proportional system.
Restating this in the alternative, a preferential ballot system is
easy to
implement and be properly scrutinized by all concerned. The
preferential
ballot fixes the vote-splitting democratic deficit within the
"first past
the post" system that the proposed mixed proportional systems
do not
address. Lastly, from a democratic perspective, there is no
harm done in
adopting the preferential system, though to be sure there would be
howls of
disdain and contempt from various quarters that currently get unfair
advantage from the "first past the post" system.
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"Scoring" The Electoral Coverage By The Pundits
In a "first past the post system", losing candidates have
no say in the
government that follows. Even the members in
"opposition" including the
"back-benchers" of the reigning party have, as Ed Schreyer
so nobly put it,
ever decreasing levels of influence at the hands of a prime minister
who is
acting ever more presidential while never elected as a president.
So, given these realities, what is the significance of the almost
universally accepted and unquestioned ritual among election coverage
pundits
in their comparing the "popular vote" of one party versus
another? As
stated earlier, many election pundits can even be heard claiming the
"first
past the post" system is a "winner take all" system
which encourages stable
majority government, in contrast to what they call unstable minority
government. Stable for whom is not defined!
Under the "first past the post" system, no regard is given
to any candidate
with a lesser popular vote than the front runner. This
paper has pointed
out in the Kildonan-St. Paul and Churchill examples, where the
collective
popular vote of the lesser candidates could have lead to a more
democratic
rule of the majority. Why then would any election pundit be so
eager to
present the popular vote number instead of the actual realized
plurality of
only those candidates that were actually elected?
From this vantage point, its also an easy step to see why
election pundits
invariably claim "majority" governments provide stable
governments. Only now
the immediate next question becomes "Yes, and which minority
groups are the
ones that profit from these more "stable" but undemocratic
governments?"!
And "how come you have not brought forward any analysis nor
benefits about
the preferential ballot as a way to address and make a next good
step to
reducing the democratic deficit?"
As I am a private person advancing this analysis on behalf of the
public
good, I must bring this to a close for now. If so inclined, I
would ask for
your help in advancing/funding this research further. However
in all
circumstances, I would encourage that you yourself familiarize
yourself with
more of the undemocratic hidden biases cloaked within the
"first past the
post" system and many, if not all, of the other touted reform
measures.
Examples of additional questions of democratic deficits arising from
the
"first past the post" system that may need further
examination may be
reviewed under Endnotes.
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Concluding Summary
Canada's "first past the post" election system has
outlived its useful
contribution to democracy.
Majority rule, is the cornerstone between democratic
"self-rule" and being
"other-ruled" where 50% plus one is the minimum standard
in any democratic
election. By common practice, constitutional changes, for
example require
2/3 majorities.
The most destructive undemocratic element within the "first
past the post"
system is that, through an orchestra of party candidates, votes can
be split
to the advantage of the most centrally dominated top-down party.
However, Canada's "first past the post" election system
elevates many
minority candidates into elected status even though their popular
vote was
less than 50%, in one case even less than one-third of the
constituents
endorsed the elected candidate!
Currently, the system provides distinct and considerable inside
advantage,
which on the whole is corporate-friendly citizen-unfriendly. Nor is
this
stacked electoral deck a small feat of accomplishment to the
distinct
advantage of those within the corporate-friendly subset within our
country.
In Canada, no corporation may vote, only citizens. So why would
citizens
keep electing governments which on the whole are corporate-friendly
citizen-unfriendly?
For a view of what Harper's view on all of this is, please see the
first and
third of three items provided at this
link.
Proportional representation may be a step in the right direction,
but ...
(the) preferential ballot is a bigger step actually correcting
democratic
deficits arising from vote-splitting, which is a major factor in the
"first
past the post" system. Nor do the mixed proportional
systems I have
reviewed correct this problem.
As well, all proportional systems involve much complexity, where the
devil
may continue to reside in the detail. On the other hand, the
preferential
ballot is a small step to implement and could be done in time for
the next
election providing immediate democratic benefit. If necessary,
the proportional fix can still be implemented on top of a preferential
system,
providing a much more positive outcome than simply what a proportional
system could provide.
However change will not come about without the citizenry informing
themselves and through united action outside and across the
political
parties, demanding that the preferential ballot be implemented for
the next
election. Demanding further, that until there is a better more
widespread
understanding of how the preferential ballot redistributions work,
that all
elections ballot counts be required to be conducted manually without
any
computer assistance and thereby avoid the American black box voting
controversies that have also plague the best of Canadian accounting
firms
who with the aid of a computer could not get the relatively simple
process
of redistributing the ballots one at a time correctly.
Only when the electorate, with a solid understanding of how huge the
democratic deficit is, grows weary of it and demands that the no
harm
solution of a preferential ballot be adopted, will this change be
brought
about.
Eduard Hiebert
2186 HWY 26
ST Francois Xavier MB R4L 1B3
Back to top
Endnotes
Examples of additional questions of democratic deficits arising from
the
"first past the post" system that may need further
examination.
- Why do the "first past the post" elections tend to
crown either the
Conservatives or Liberals?
- And when they are elected, why more frequently with so called
"majorities"?
- With finer subtleties, why do virtual unknown Conservative or
Liberal
candidates, simply stand for election to make sure the party runs
308
candidates?
- Why do these candidates pickup votes more easily than sincere
grassroots
NDP candidates?
- Why in turn do the majority of NDP candidates, who will never
win, pick
up more votes more easily than the Greens?
- Why in turn do the Greens, where many more candidates were not
serious
contenders but filling Jim Harris's wants of having 308 candidates,
pick up
more votes more easily than a string of 90 independent candidates
across the
country, many of them substantially superior but did not have much
elective
results?
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