FPTP bad! MMP worse!! "Vote 1, 2,
3..." better!!! Stops vote-splits, overruns & phony
majorities
(With Ontarians turning down MMP, is this a
lost opportunity, or is there a better way?)
In the paper I submitted to the Ontario
Citizens Assembly on Electoral reform I included the following
key statement: "You can not fix something if you do not
know what is broken... you can not fix a bicycle tire if you do not
know where the hole is. We can not fix our election system
with certainty, without knowing where the holes are that allow
minorities to control the majorities."
The following pinpoints the hole within the
current electoral system, provides a brief summary of the ills of
Mixed Member Proportionality (MMP), based not on emotional
arguments, or empty wishful thinking, but a step by step logical
argument and concludes by showing the preferential ballot - vote 1,
2, 3... - all but eliminates the current single-mark-ballot (First
Past The Post [FPTP]) vulnerabilities to vote-splits and overruns,
the latter better known as phony majorities.
The outcry resulting from Canada's and Ontario's
democratic deficit drove Ontario's politicians to wrap themselves in
the flag, without giving up their control of the agenda in how they
structured the "Citizens Assembly" process. Notably
absent from the Assembly's deliberations was that it never got down
to defining either the democratic deficit, nor its causes!
The root cause of the democratic deficit is made
possible through the use of a single-mark-ballot. First, the
single-mark-ballot, even when the field of choice involves more than
two choices, restricts the vote to making one mark. Then, when
these ballots are counted, about the best use of the
single-mark-ballot is to only make the limited comparison, which
candidate received more votes than any other single candidate.
However, this system is very vulnerable to vote-splitting the voice
of the majority voters into smaller pieces so that a minority
supported candidate, who may actually be in direct opposition to the
interests of the majority but has more support than any other single
candidate, is then elevated to elected status. As this vote is
the outcome of the people's vote, it provides the necessary illusion
that this was their choice, as one of their own, despite the Trojan
Horse credentials of many of the candidate. Such a minority
supported candidate, elevated to elected status, makes possible that
the will of the majority is being thwarted and trumped by the will
of a minority and contrasts sharply with almost all other democratic
decision making processes, where the minimum gold standard of
democratic self rule is "Majority Rule".
Turning directly to MMP, Mixed Member
Proportionality as a system, neither tackles nor addresses the
democratic deficit of minority rule but enshrines it more deeply!
Here's how:
As statistical background, the two most widely
recognised proponents of MMP, FairVote and EqualVoice, along with an
overwhelming majority of participants in the Ontario Assembly
process ALL agreed and found fptp unacceptable. For example,
Fairvote's submission to the Assembly stated fptp is a
"dysfunctional voting system that violates core Canadian
values"! EqualVoice's said "We believe the Citizen's
Assembly should NOT recommend retaining our present
first-past-the-post system"!
However, MMP at its core, is really fptp
repackaged and then given a new name! Currently, Ontario
citizens elect 107 members to parliament using "the defective
and vulnerable to vote-splitting system", fptp. Under the
proposed "MMP" system, instead of electing 107 by the
defective fptp system, the citizens are short-changed and will
continue to use the same defective fptp system, but only be
able to elect 90 fptp candidates! As a foot-note, 90 members
elected by the dysfunctional fptp system will be less representative
and less proportional of the citizenry than 107 elected by the
dysfunctional fptp system!
Returning to "vote-splitting" for a
moment, vote-splitting describes what happens to the votes of the
majority, whereby the voice of the majority is split into smaller
pieces, so that an elite minority representative candidate appears
to have more support than any of the majority's vote-split
candidates. The effect of vote-splitting, the dividing of the voice
of the majority, has a corresponding effect on the composition of
parliament's members and is called "overruns".
"Overruns" are where a party's % share
of SEATS elected is greater than the % of VOTES received. When a
party gains a majority of seats, that is called majority government,
but when that party has achieved that status through overruns and
does not have the support of a majority of voters, that is truly a
phony majority and feeds the democratic deficit. The overruns
resulting from Canada' 2006 election are so extensive, that when all
308 MPs together would agree on something, these 308 MPs all
together only have the confidence of 48% of the voters who voted in
Canada. That is, of all the people who voted in the 2006
federal elections, only 48% of them voted for the 308 candidates
that the dysfunctional fptp system elevated to elected status,
where, with contempt for the citizens who voted, now exercise
minority rule over the majority with impunity. Is not the true watch
word of democracy, "majority rule..."? (For supporting
details, please see the paper and spreadsheet on the 2006 federal
election available here.)
Adding insult to injury, the party proportional
fix component of "MMP", then, in perpetuity, without a
mandated right of a citizen review or referendum, gives parties the
right to stack parliament, already stacked with
"overruns", with a further 39 party appointed members,
members who are not subject to direct elections even by the
"dysfunctional (fptp) voting system that violates core Canadian
values"!
With undeniable certainty, under "MMP",
parliament with a smaller number of fptp elected members (90 instead
of 107) plus the new party proportional fix, where the parties
appoint a further 39 members to parliament (altogether 127), such an
MMP parliament has with certainty a greater democratic deficit
mandate than the current standalone fptp system. In summary
the democratically dysfunctional fptp (107) is still more democratic
than MMP (127) made up of fptp (90) & "party fix"
(39).
And in anticipation of the MMP referendum, certain
people's loyalties were flip-flopping. Formerly, Wendy Bergerud,
when a member of the BC Citizen Assembly process, summarised the
situation this way "Would you agree that MMP mixes two of the
worst systems together: constituency seats selected by plurality
votes and closed-list PR where the party leadership chooses who is
at the top and their list?"
Now, what has not been explained and begging
public explanation is how FairVote and this same Wendy Bergerud, who
is now a member of Fairvote's "15-person National Council...
responsible for setting strategic direction and policies for Fair
Vote Canada", how Wendy, having condemned MMP now endorses MMP,
and furthermore how can Wendy and FairVote together, as one voice,
having denounced fptp, how can they now endorse MMP which is but two
separate fptp systems bundled together into one system with two
components called MMP?
And once, as per above, attention is specifically
drawn to that which is dysfunctional within fptp, namely the
single-mark-ballot with a relative majority counting system, a
solution as the next step becomes almost self-evident.
The deficiency of a single-mark-ballot system
using a relative majority count can be fixed easily, simply and with
just an eensy-teensy-weensy tiny little tweak to the present system.
Continue using the current ballot but allow people to mark the
ballot preferentially, vote 1, 2, 3... and continue counting the
ballots as is done now, except if no candidate has the support of
the majority of voters, then redistribute the ballots of the weakest
candidate according to their second choice, etc until one candidate
does have the confidence of the majority. While a more robust
counting system exists, even the simple manual redistributive method
of counting would eliminate almost all, if not all of the current
vote-splitting, including the corresponding overruns that are so
offensive and contributive to the democratic deficit under an fptp
system.
And lastly, and certainly not least, while already
shown that fptp 107 is better than MMP 129, now we have vote 1,2,3
(107) being even better than either fptp 107! Not only is a
vote 1,2,3 (107) parliament more accountable to the people than
either of the other two systems, it would also BE MUCH LESS COSTLY
TO ONTARIO'S TAX BASE THAN AN 127 MMP MEMBER PARLIAMENT! A
vote 1,2,3... parliament would provide more bang from the public
purse dollar than either the current system or the party preferred
MMP system.
Regarding further improvements, later, once this
more democratic parliament is in place, further measures of reform
such as true proportionality, such as gender parity, minority
underrepresentation, etc., could much more properly and more
correctly be addressed than with this current bunch driving the
process and would immeasurably be preferred to giving the parties a
proportional fix to then hang out carrots of proportionality, as
would certainly be the case under a party focused proportional fix. |